“When the US president elect Barrack Obama assumes office in January, the crisis will still be bigger,” Kumar said while delivering lecture on Current Financial Turmoil and Lesson for Future at Ahmedabad Management Association today.
“150 billion $ tax cut package for the housing sector was too little and too late to stem the collapse of a much higher magnitude,” Kumar said adding “Every aspect of financial sector got sucked into the financial turmoil.”
“In last two decades the financial markets in US got deregulated, under the guidance of Alan Greenspan as he worked on assumption that markets are self stabilising, but in a recent testitmony Greenspan admitted he was wrong for 16 years,” Kumar said while quoting a US leading daily.
This deregulation led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stern and other troubled entitites, he added.
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“Government has intervened, crisis has slowed down, but there is crisis of confidence now amongst the banks. The financial and money markets work on certain degree of trust and confidence and this should not be shattered at any cost,” he added.”Collapse in US was so sharp against the gradual rise because the banks were interlocked in deals. Due to deregulartion there were instruments promising much higher returns and even a marginal fall in assest pricing triggered it all,” Arun Kumar said.
US economy was thriving on borrowed funds, so post crisis countries such as Japan, China, Iceland, Ukraine and others are in deep trouble. China is finding ways to delink from dollar, after corporate profits began falling showing early signs of heading into recession, Arun Kumar said.
Now protectionism of economy has creeped in due to lack of confidence, that too is dangeorus, he cautioned. So when the US President-elect Barrack Obama joins office he would prioritise job creation in sectors like BPO and call centres, Kumar said adding, in the past 1.5 billion job loss has been reported in US.
So at this historic juncture a out-of-box re-architecturing is required for the $ 600 trillion financial sector, he added.
In the backdrop of such a scenario the G-20 initiative is important and extensive coordination between the government’s including Indian should be evolved to come over it, Kumar added.
