Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear capabilities could trigger a massive Iranian retaliation and threaten to tip the region into a full-scale war, analysts and experts have long warned.
And if Israel and Iran become entangled in wider conflict, it could risk drawing in the US into the fray. That is because the US has long been Israel’s closest ally and biggest weapons supplier.
Indications of that risk emerged earlier this week as the US ordered the departure of non-essential personnel from locations around the Middle East as intelligence warnings increased that an Israeli strike on Iran was imminent.
Israeli officials said Friday they were bracing for Iran’s retaliation, declaring a state of emergency.
There will be widespread fear among those living in Israel and across the Middle East as Israel’s strikes throw the region into uncharted territory.
Iran’s regional reach: Iran oversees a so-called “Axis of Resistance” across the region that includes loyal proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen as well as various militia groups in Iraq and Syria.
Experts say an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would also likely spell the end of its negotiations with the US.
Last year Israel and Iran’s years-long proxy war erupted into the open with a series of direct missile strikes on each other.
At the time, the US warned Israel not to strike Iran’s energy or nuclear infrastructure. And Iran rushed to downplay the strikes, responding with visually powerful but carefully calibrated retaliation that caused limited damage.
New territory: Friday’s attack by Israel goes much further, striking at the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military complex. Israel hit Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz and killed General Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s highest-ranking military officer.
CNN’s security analyst Beth Sanner said that removing Salami is akin to taking out the US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff: “You can imagine what Americans would do,” she said.
Iran is now “under existential threat” and as such, the Israelis will be expecting “a massive, much bigger retaliation than what they saw last time,” Sanner said.
